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For decades we have been tracking the market’s
performance around holidays in the annual Stock
Trader’s Almanac. In the 56th edition for 2023, data for
DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 can be found on page 100. Of the
eight holidays tracked, Christmas has been one of the most consistently bullish
with respectable average gains occurring from 3 days before to the day before. Since
1988, the second day before Christmas, December 22 this year, has been most
bullish over the past 34 years with greatest average gains and a highest
frequency of advances.
Small caps measured by Russell 2000 have enjoyed the
most consistent strength on all three days. Volatility also tends to be subdued
ahead of Christmas with significant declines occurring only in 2018, 2008, 2001
and 2000. 2018 was the only year to see declines on all three days by all four
indexes.
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