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Seeking Alpha Contributors Expect Another Negative Year

Byadmin

Jan 1, 2023
SA Editor Jeffrey Fischer profile picture

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U.S. stock market investors saw 2022 deliver the biggest broad market losses since the Financial Crisis. The S&P 500 finished the year almost -20% lower, while small caps (as represented by the Russell 2000) finished lower by nearly -22%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost nearly 1/3 of its value.

Investors would like to gauge what’s in store for 2023, so we asked our contributors to present their broad market analysis and estimates for the S&P 500 for the coming year.

Will Stocks Rebound In 2023?

According to our contributors, no, stocks are not likely to rebound in 2023. The below chart summarizes the S&P500 predictions from the 34 contributors who weighed-in with their analysis.

On average, contributors are expecting a small decline in the S&P 500 in 2023.

The most optimistic forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 is for a rise of +35.8%. The most pessimistic contributor who submitted a prediction for 2023 expects the index to close at 2685, or -30.1% lower, in 2023.

The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF) is also a Hold. To learn more about Quant Ratings, see here.

Will 2023 Be Another Volatile Year?

Indeed, many contributors predict that the S&P 500 will bottom-out at a much lower level than it is today, sometime mid-2023. Most then expect some sort of rebound.

The VIX, the measure of volatility expectations for the S&P 500, experienced several spikes to the ~35 level during the past year. The indicator has settled down in recent months but remains significantly above the 2021 low and pre-pandemic levels.

What Are Some Of The Primary Bearish Arguments For Stock Markets in 2023?

  • The Federal Reserve continues to hike short-term interest rates, although has slowed the pace of the increases.
  • Higher Interest Rates not only

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Image and article originally from seekingalpha.com. Read the original article here.