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Economists and observers note that the protocol from the August meeting of the RBA, published earlier on Wednesday, can be characterized as “pigeon”. And now, after today’s release of the Australian labor market report, many market participants are pricing in the likelihood that the RBA will cut the rate by 25 bp. in September or puts this process on pause, and does not raise the interest rate, as previously thought.
Against the backdrop of the continued increase in interest rates by the Fed and a more restrained approach of the RBA to this process, we should expect further decline in the AUD/USD pair.
At the time of publication of this article, the pair is trading near 0.6963, while remaining in the bear market zone below key resistance levels 0.7130, 0.7280 (for more details, see “AUD/USD: technical analysis and trading recommendations for 08/18/2022“).
The most likely is a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6900 and further decline within the descending channel on the weekly AUD/USD chart. Its lower border goes below 0.6600 and below the local 2-year low 0.6685 reached last month.
In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance levels of 0.6975, 0.7000 AUD/USD will head towards the resistance levels of 0.7080, 0.7130.
A breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7280 will once again bring AUD/USD into the zone of a long-term bull market.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6685, 0.6660, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6270, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7037, 0.7080, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7200, 0.7280
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