Almanac Trader — NASDAQ Midterm Year Seasonal Low in October?

Today’s hotter than anticipated CPI reading of 9.1% was the highest since 1981 leading to the speculation that the Fed could actually raise rates later this month by a full percentage point. Historically, higher interest rates have not been all that kind to NASDAQ and its high concentration of growth stocks. The increase in rates thus far this year has already resulted in a sizable decline for NASDAQ, down 28.1% year-to-date as of today’s close. When coupled with the historically weak track record of NASDAQ in past midterm years, the immediate outlook further dims. However, as you can see in the 1-Year Seasonal Pattern chart of NASDAQ above, NASDAQ has typically found a seasonal low in early October in past midterm years.