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On the heels of one of the roughest first half starts in
decades; the market had found some footing during the seasonally bullish start
to the second half of the year here in the beginning of July. Even during
historically meager midterm years, the first half of July has generated
respectable gains. However much like the first half of the year, typical first
half of July strength appears to have come to an end. After briefly entering
positive territory, NASDAQ’s
midyear rally is now a bust down 2.3% at today’s close with only two days
remaining in the 12-day span.
As you can see in the updated S&P 500
seasonal pattern chart, through today’s close above, S&P 500 has rolled
over and appears to be tracking the sideways trading action in in “All Midterm
Years” and “Democratic President Midterm” years. We still believe this bear
market will put in a typical midterm-election-year bottom sometime later this
year. The bottom is most likely to be in the August-October timeframe just
ahead of the midterm elections and possibly around the time when the Fed begins
to signal that it may slow or even pause its rate hike cycle.
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Image and article originally from jeffhirsch.tumblr.com. Read the original article here.