Turning Point and Trend
If you want to become the profitable trader, the first thing you need to understand is turning point and trend in the financial market. If you read many trading articles and books, you will find the diverse opinion over turning point and trend. Many people view turning point and trend as two separate subjects. However, it might be better to understand turning point and trend as two parts inside one body. Let us try to understand the trend. To do so, let us take human as an analogical example. We are born, we grow up, we become mature, and then we die. During this process, we can observe that there are four main stages. These four stages are universal across many creatures and objects observable in the earth.
Birth – Growth – Maturity – Death
Trend also goes through these four stages. Let us take an example in the financial market. For example, if we hear that Apple has some temporary problem in their smartphone supply line, this could stir up the Samsung’s Stock price because the demand for Samsung’s smart phone will be increased. Once this news is spread on the financial market, the upward trend will be born for Samsung’s stock price. At the beginning, this news could be known by few people. Later, more and more people could hear this news. Hence, Samsung’s stock price can build up upward momentum. However, this momentum will not last forever. Once people start to recognize that price rallied too high and some people start taking the profit by selling the stocks, the upward momentum can slow down. Especially, if we hear that Apple recovered the temporary problem in their smartphone supply line, the trend could die completely. As shown in this example, Birth, Growth, Maturity, and Death are the life cycle of trend.
Now let us revisit the definition of turning point and trend. Turning point is the beginning of new trend after the old trend died off. Hence, turning point strategy refers to the strategy that tries to pick up this new trend as early as possible. This sometimes involves picking up the turning point at the birth stage of the trend. In financial trading, trend strategy typically refers to the strategy that tries to pick up established trend during the growth stage. Most of trend strategy is in fact momentum strategy. When the growth of trend is strong, many technical indicators are designed to react on this strong growth. For example, if you trade on the buy signal when 20 moving average line crosses over the 50 moving average line, you do need strong upwards movement to lift the 20 moving average line over the 50 moving average line.
In contrast to this, in turning point strategy like Fibonacci price patterns, Harmonic patterns and Elliott wave patterns, we are looking for the newly born trend instead of the trend in growth stage. Hence, the main difference in turning point and trend strategy is when to enter during the life cycle of trend. Typically, we are seeking to enter near the birth of trend in the turning point strategy. In trend strategy, we are seeking to enter at the growth strategy of trend.
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